It’s that time of year again when outstanding achievements in film are in the spotlight as Hollywood gears up for the 96th annual Academy Awards ceremony, taking place live in LA at 4:00pm PST on Sunday, March 10.

Kids & family movies have traditionally shined brightest in the Best Animated Feature category—and this year is no different. The 2024 shortlist includes a diverse mix of acclaimed projects: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse, The Boy and the Heron, Elemental, Nimona and Robot Dreams.

Across the Spider-Verse is way out ahead as the frontrunner, with Deadline, Vanity Fair, Variety, The Wrap and LA Times all placing their bets on Sony Pictures’ CG-animated flick to win. In terms of numbers, The Hollywood Reporter puts Spidey’s odds at 74.1%—and GoldDerby’s predictions have it as the top choice for 19 out of 27 experts. 

Academy voters have already shown their appreciation for the web-slinging franchise before—the first film in the trilogy, Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, earned an Oscar in this category back in 2018. And there’s a lot going for it this year, from a stellar theatrical gross (US$690 million) to its creative use of stylistic animation and multiversal storytelling to build on a legacy superhero saga. It’s also coming off a sweep of last month’s Annie Awards, plus wins from the Critics Choice Awards and the Producers Guild of America. 

However, the data also shows that animated sequels have a weak track record at the Oscars. With the exceptions of Toy Story 3 and Toy Story 4, the Best Animated Feature award has always been presented to original films over follow-ups. And if that pattern holds, the nominee most likely to beat Spider-Verse is Studio Ghibli’s The Boy and the Heron. 

With US$167 million in global ticket sales, this anime feature is The Guardian‘s dark horse pick for the prize, and it has already won in the same category at the Golden Globes and the BAFTAs. A victory this year would give veteran filmmaker Hayao Miyazaki—who, along with Pete Docter, is the most-nominated individual in this category with four nods to date—a second competitive golden statue for his collection. The first was awarded to Spirited Away in 2002.

Robot Dreams (Arcadia Motion Pictures, Lokiz Films, Noodles Production, Les Films du Worso)

Among the remaining three Best Animated Feature nominees, Pixar’s Elemental stands out as a strong example of a sleeper hit, grossing almost US$500 million worldwide after a soft opening—with international markets like South Korea giving it impressive legs. And Pixar has performed well in this category in the past, with 11 wins and 18 nominations putting it well ahead of any other studio. 

Netflix tested a unique strategy for Nimona (Annapurna Pictures) last month by temporarily uploading the full movie on YouTube—a play that helped the project gain some attention and remain easily accessible during the voting window for the Oscars. 

And last but not least, the sans-dialogue pic Robot Dreams was among the projects that earned a top honor at last year’s Annecy Festival. Billed as a tragicomedy about the friendship between a dog and a robot, this Spanish-French film was co-produced by Arcadia Motion Pictures, Lokiz Films, Noodles Production and Les Films du Worso.

There are also a number of kids & family contenders to watch for beyond the animated feature field this year. Mattel’s blockbuster Barbie is widely considered as a lock for Best Original Song with “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish. This pensive ballad has generated more than 700 million streams on Spotify and picked up two Grammy Awards last month, including Song of the Year. 

While Barbie is also a favorite for many in the race for Best Costume Design and Best Production Design, this four-quadrant feature is facing some stiff competition in both categories from adult-skewing indie fantasy Poor Things.

Meanwhile, The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar (39 minutes) is predicted by pundits to win the Oscar for Best Live-Action Short Film. Wes Anderson directed this quirky Netflix title for teens/YA that’s based on a same-name book penned by Roald Dahl in 1977.

Featured image from left to right: The Boy and the Heron (Studio Ghibli), Spider-Man: Across the SpiderVerse (Sony Pictures Animation) and Barbie (Mattel Films).