The cord-cutting wave is set to hit Western Europe, with a new report from Digital TV Research predicting that the total number of pay-TV subscribers in the region will drop by nine million (8%) in the next six years.

Roughly 53% of households in Western Europe are still expected to have pay-TV services by 2029, according to the Western Europe Pay TV Forecasts report the UK-based research firm released today—and that’s only down from 58% in 2023.

Geographically, pay-TV subs are poised to drop in 14 of Western Europe’s 18 countries by 2029. Germany will lose the most (2.7 million), followed by the UK (two million), Italy (1.5 million) and France (1.1 million). The report’s data also indicates that satellite pay-TV subscriptions will decrease by 6.4 million and cable will lose 2.4 million, but internet protocol television (IPTV)—where content is delivered over the web—could gain a million subscribers.

Predictions of Pay TV subs in Western TV Europe. Courtesy of Digital TV Research

Companies that are able to shift subscribers to their SVOD services could mitigate the impact of this change. Digital TV Research singled out Sky in the UK as a prime example, estimating that the broadcaster will lose five million of its satellite TV subscribers by 2029, but gain the same number on its Sky Stream platform.

Although these projected losses in Western Europe are significant, Digital TV Research notes that they are a drop in the bucket compared to what’s happening in the US. And media research group Statista agrees. A report it published last week shows that the number of US households with pay-TV subscriptions is projected to drop to 47.8 million by 2027, down from 60.5 million in 2023.