US spending this holiday season is expected to be relatively stable compared with last year, as consumers face high prices and economic uncertainty, according to new data from Circana.

Total spending will likely fall between a 1% decline and a 2% growth, the research org estimated in its latest 2025 U.S. Holiday Purchase Intentions report, released yesterday.

More than half (54%) of the respondents Circana surveyed said that they were buying for children this year. And while 31% of those shoppers plan to spend less this year than in the past, 40% of parents expect to spend more. For reference, only 19% of shoppers without children intend to spend more.

While several product categories are expected to see increased spending, including home, beauty and entertainment, the toys/baby category is predicted to dip to US$170 for the average consumer. That’s down quite a bit from the US$206 cited in Circana’s report last year.

More than 8 in 10 holiday shoppers expect tariffs to drive prices up, and, overall, consumers say they plan to spend 3% more than they did last year. The mean average amount the respondents expect to spend is US$796, up from US$771 last year and US$754 in 2023. For 2025, 27% of shoppers say they expect to spend more than last year, 56% say they’ll spend the same amount and only 17% said they’ll spend less.

The majority (63%) of Gen Z and Millennials said higher food and grocery costs will affect their purchasing. Of these consumers, 21% said they’ll buy fewer gifts, 27% will buy the same amount of gifts but spend less on each one, and 21% said they would buy more “off brand” products.

As for where people are shopping this year, 81% plan to shop online, and almost half (47%) are using smartphones as their main way to make purchases. When it comes to figuring out what to buy, most (69%) will look for advice on YouTube. And 60% of respondents who follow bloggers and influencers say they’re likely to make a purchase based on their recommendations—up 3% from last year.

Circana surveyed 3,595 people online in the US in September for these findings.

Image courtesy of April Walker via Unsplash.