When it was announced that Netflix won the bidding war to acquire the studio arms of Warner Bros. Discovery, many assumed it would transform the landscape of kids media—but now there’s data to back it up.

On Friday, the streamer entered into a US$82.7-billion definitive agreement to buy the WB film and TV business, including HBO Max and HBO. For Netflix, it would mean access to a wealth of heavyweight kids IPs, from Harry Potter to Looney Tunes—plus output from major family content banners including WB Animation, Cartoon Network Studios, Hanna-Barbera Studios Europe and DC Studios. 

If the deal fends off a hostile takeover attempt, regulatory hurdles and makes it to the finish line, the combined companies “will be competitive with Disney in terms of scale for kids content,” notes Ampere Analysis research director Fred Black.

It’s too early to know whether Netflix will fold HBO Max into its service or keep it operating as a separate entity. WBD boss David Zaslav told staffers in a Friday townhall that HBO Max will remain separate after the merger. But if Netflix and HBO Max were to be combined as an integrated service, it would boast the third-largest kids catalogue in the US, behind only Prime Video and the soon-to-merge Disney+/Hulu platform.

To calculate this ranking, Ampere filtered the volume of distinct kids & family movies and TV seasons by SVOD in the US during Q3 this year. Black points out that Netflix and HBO Max have a combined 130 million domestic subscribers (though that doesn’t take into consideration the overlap of people who subscribe to both). “While this could be pushed back by regulators, it actually represents a 25% market share of the domestic market.” 

On a global level, a combined service could have well over 330 million subscribers. “This would also seriously enhance the potential of Netflix’s nascent ad business to reach considerable scale,” says Black. But he adds that this “tremendous scale” could become a major threat for the rest of the market, perhaps triggering more consolidation among other players fighting to keep up.

In a scenario where all of WBD’s assets merged with Netflix, the resulting entity would be the second-largest global commissioner of kids content, Ampere notes. But since the Netflix bid excludes WBD’s linear networks, there’s some uncertainty about which commissions be absorbed by the streamer. 

“A lot of those commissioners—including the largest in Cartoon Network—will be staying with Discovery+,” Black explains. “That reduces the combined entity’s size to around fifth or sixth globally, depending on how some commissions that are currently shared between HBO Max and linear channel assets in Latin America are handled.”

Going by total number of kids content production greenlights in the past year, Ampere estimates that Netflix is acquiring the world’s sixth-largest kids content producer.

Black highlights that WB’s production capabilities still hold up well against top competitors, despite cutbacks in recent years. “[WB] also primarily produces in the US but has a hand in European and Latin American production, which will be complimentary to Netflix’s global approach.”

Of course, one of the deal’s key benefits for Netflix is access to a whole new cache of family-friendly IPs. Ampere highlights how much the move would diversify Netflix’s kids catalogue, giving juggernaut Gabby’s Dollhouse more company in terms of evergreen franchises. WB properties have enjoyed lots of commissioning activity in the last three years—DC’s extended universe leads the pack, followed by IPs like Me Contro Te, Looney Tunes, Craig of the Creek, Adventure Time and Scooby-Doo (pictured).